ClassicTrendIndex.com

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Trend Following

Trend following is an investment strategy that seeks to capitalize on momentum in market prices – buying assets that are trending upwards and selling those trending downwards. This approach is grounded in the principle that markets exhibit persistent trends over time, which can be leveraged for profitable trading opportunities.

A trend following index serves as a useful tool in measuring the performance of the strategy by aggregating and tracking the returns of trend following programs to provide a benchmark against which performance of an individual fund can be compared. A trend following index can highlight the strategy’s strengths, such as its ability to navigate and potentially profit from both bull and bear markets, and its emphasis on disciplined risk management.

ClassicTrendIndex.com offers detailed data and analysis, providing investors with a clearer understanding of classic trend following as a strategy and within a diversified investment portfolio. Its specialized focus makes it a useful tool for evaluating the specific nuances and long-term, risk-adjusted performance of classic trend following strategies in the investment world.

ClassicTrendIndex.com

ClassicTrendIndex.com publishes an index focusing specifically on classic trend following programs, as opposed to other systematic or discretionary trend following indexes that may include a wider array of trend following styles. It is calculated by applying equal weight to globally diverse classic trend following programs, including the Chesapeake Capital Diversified Plus Program /  Multi-Asset Trend Program * from the US, the Takahe Capital Systematic Trend Program** from Europe, and the ECCM Systematic Trend Program from the Asia Pacific.

What sets classic trend following programs apart are their dedication to simple, universally applicable breakout models without volatility control overlays, and their commitment to broad diversification across asset classes. Classic trend following programs are characterized by systematic processes, small bets, medium to long term breakouts, stop losses and trailing exits, and adherence to the philosophy of “cutting losses short and letting profits run.” They seek to exploit the factor of time series momentum with no price targets or dynamic position scaling during particular trades, which allows them to capture significant positive market shifts, known as Outliers.

* Chesapeake Capital Diversified Plus Program from January 2020 through to May 2024, and the Multi-Asset Trend Program from June 2024 onwards. ** Takahe Systematic Trend Program from January 2020 through to June 2025, and the Takahe Global Markets Fund from July 2025 onwards.

Why Classic

To better appreciate classic trend following, it's important to clearly articulate its foundational elements, setting it apart from the more diversified approaches that many trend managers have gradually embraced to meet evolving investor demands. The turn of the millennium marked a pivotal shift in investment preferences towards strategies characterized by lower volatility, minimal drawdowns, and consistent returns, moving away from the previously tolerated higher volatility in equity markets. This change was largely driven by an increased sensitivity to the career risks associated with high volatility investments, leading to a widespread preference for more stable and secure investment portfolios. In response, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) began to incorporate volatility controlling overlays to the classic trend following approach, which were not widely used before, as a means to curb volatility, enhance their capacity for asset gathering, and pivot their business models towards earning through management fees rather than relying on performance fees. While this strategic shift was aimed at meeting client demands for lower risk, it inadvertently compromised the high returns that were hallmark of classic trend following strategies.

This evolution in trend following, though initially aimed at improving risk management and facilitating business expansion, has inadvertently impacted the performance potential of these strategies. The focus on reducing volatility and the associated changes in trading practices have watered down the effectiveness of classic trend following strategies in seizing significant market movements during crucial times. This industry-wide shift, which departs from the core principles of effective trading, highlights the intrinsic value of classic trend following strategies that emphasize capturing substantial market trends without compromising their potential through overemphasis on risk aversion.

Performance

Performance Table

ClassicTrendIndex.com is recalibrated every year to ensure equal representation of the programs. Each program, while grounded in the core principles of classic trend following, introduces unique, uncorrelated traits due to their distinct application of classic techniques and choice of universe.

The integration of various methodologies that all adopt the “Golden Rules of Classic Trend Following” has resulted in an index with consistently strong risk-adjusted returns over time and showcasing the effectiveness of investing in a number of programs.

Performance Chart

Historically, trend following strategies have demonstrated a notable capacity to outperform traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. This robust performance over the long term is attributed to trend following programs’ strong focus on risk management and an emphasis on cutting losses early to protect capital. Unlike conventional investment approaches that often rely on market timing or predicting future price movements, trend following is grounded in reacting to existing market trends, regardless of market direction.

A key aspect of trend following is the rigorous application of stop-loss orders and similar mechanisms to exit losing trades swiftly, thereby minimizing losses and preserving capital. This disciplined approach to risk management is pivotal, especially during market downturns or periods of high volatility, where traditional assets like stocks and bonds may experience significant drawdowns.

Statistics

Allocating to trend following can offer significant diversification benefits to an investment portfolio, particularly in the context of generating positive expected returns that are uncorrelated with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. Systematic trend following strategies such as the underlying programs represented by ClassicTrendIndex.com, employ quantitative models to capitalize on market trends, and are inherently different from the mechanisms driving stock and bond markets.

This difference is a key factor in trend following programs’ low correlation with traditional asset classes. By including a systematic trend following component, a portfolio can achieve a more balanced risk profile, especially during market downturns or periods of heightened volatility when stocks and bonds might move in tandem or face simultaneous declines. The unique return patterns of trend following strategies, driven by long-term market trends and not by the short-term fluctuations that often impact stocks and bonds, contribute to portfolio stability and can offer a hedge against market cycles.

This diversification not only helps in smoothing overall portfolio returns but also in reducing the impact of market-specific risks, making it a strategic choice for investors seeking to enhance portfolio resilience while pursuing positive returns.

Correlations

A key advantage of trend following programs lies in their ability to diversify investment risks, as they often demonstrate low correlation with conventional asset classes. This diversification can be valuable during times of market stress, where it can mitigate the impact of simultaneous downturns in both stock and bond markets. Trend following strategies are adept at capitalizing on both rising and declining market trends, offering avenues for positive returns across varying market conditions, which is not typically possible with standard stock and bond investments.

Furthermore, the hallmark of these strategies is their rigorous risk management, aimed at preserving capital and minimizing losses, a factor that is reflected in their superior risk-adjusted performance metrics. Therefore, in the context of crafting a balanced and resilient investment strategy, allocating to a trend following index can be a prudent and strategic choice, enhancing both the potential for returns and the robustness of the portfolio against diverse market scenarios.

Investment in a number of programs further helps to reduce idiosyncratic manager risk, with the underlying programs representing an additional layer of diversification of returns within trend following.

Next Steps

Are you intrigued by ClassicTrendIndex.com? For a deeper exploration into this dynamic trend following index, get in touch with us at contact@ClassicTrendIndex.com.

If you would like to receive periodic updates on ClassicTrendIndex.com performance and upcoming events to be held by Chesapeake Capital, Takahe Capital and East Coast Capital Management, please subscribe to our newsletter. And as always, the Aussie Turtles are available to talk trend following at aussieturtles.com.

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